The 2020 US Senate elections are looming, and the Republicans seem to be the odds-on favorites to secure the majority of the seats. Following the 2016 elections, the Democrats need to net three extra seats to usurp the Republicans. As it stands, that is a tough ask.
Out of the total amount, 35 seats will be up for election in 2020. These include special elections in Arizona and Georgia. Out of these, 23 are held by the Republicans as it stands. Like always, the majority of the 35 seats are expected to be retained by the respective parties. For example – Idaho, Wyoming, and South Dakota are strong bets for the Republicans once again. On the other hand – Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey are strongholds for the Democrats. Some seats which are in the between will ultimately decide the elections.
For instance, Michigan could go either way in the elections even if it’s slightly more favorable towards the Democrats. Similarly, the likes of Alabama and Georgia are leaning towards Republicans at the moment. The Democrats are also backing defending senator Doug Jones in Alabama, a seat in which President Donald Trump has a 28-point approval rating. It is highly likely that the Republicans will steal that one, which means that the gap will rise to four seats.
Some seats are incredibly close in most polls, and they are – Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Maine. Democrats will be looking to secure one or more of these seats to cover the gap. Many forecasters believe that Colorado is the likeliest pickup among these. This is so as it has been a reliably blue state since 2014. If recent history is to be believed, the Democrats can be confident.
However, the same cannot be said about the other three states. Arizona will be the second-best bet after Colorado, as Mark Kelly is a promising candidate for the Democrats. As for Maine and North Carolina, the margin is negligible. They will need at least two from this bracket of four as Republicans have a major part in Alabama.
The Republicans also have a chance of stealing Michigan, as Trump’s win in 2016 provides some confidence. If they manage to get Michigan along with Alabama, it will be near impossible for the Democrats to make up that gap.
The Democrats have a chance in Iowa and Montana, but they will need major work there to pull it off. Given that they need to make up a gap of at least three seats, they just might. It all depends on which seats do the Democrats focus upon to overturn the power.
Who will win Democrats or Republicans in 2020?
Given that most of the seats are likely to be retained, the Republicans can be confident of having more than 50 seats. Their hold on Alabama is a major factor, and the Democrats will need to overturn a gap of four seats in that case. While that is not impossible, the safe bet is picking the Republicans to get the majority.